Saturday, April 27, 2013

First Half of Key Reversals

Silver and Gold Prices Posted the First Half of Key Reversals Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1,453.60
Gold Price Close 19-Apr-13 : 1,395.30
Change : 58.30 or 4.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.758 
Silver Price Close 19-Apr-13 : 22.955 
Change : 0.803 or 3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.184
Gold Silver Ratio 19-Apr-13 : 60.784 
Change : 0.40 or 0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01634
Silver Gold Ratio 19-Apr-13 : 0.01645
Change : -0.00011 or -0.7%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 209.23 
Dow in Gold Dollars 19-Apr-13 : $ 215.53 
Change : -$6.30 or -2.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 10.121
Dow in Gold Ounces 19-Apr-13 : 10.426
Change : -0.30 or -2.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 619.27
Dow in Silver Ounces 19-Apr-13 : 633.74
Change : -14.47 or -2.3%

Dow Industrial : 14,712.55
Dow Industrial 19-Apr-13 : 14,547.51
Change : 165.04 or 1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,582.24
S&P 500 19-Apr-13 : 1,555.25
Change : 26.99 or 1.7%

US Dollar Index : 82.501
US Dollar Index 19-Apr-13 : 82.729
Change : -0.228 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,475.20
Platinum Price Close 19-Apr-13 : 1,423.30
Change : 51.90 or 3.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 680.85
Palladium Price Close 19-Apr-13 : 675.90 
Change : 4.95 or 0.7%

Yesterday silver and GOLD PRICES soared, today they glided down. Gold lost $8.20 and closed Comex at $1,453.60. Silver gave back 38.2 cents (of yesterday's 130.7 cent gain) to close Comex at 2375.8c.

Silver and gold prices posted the first half of key reversals today, a new intraday high for the move with a close lower than yesterday's. A close on Monday lower than today's would forecast lower prices.

All here hinges on which of two outcomes ensures, (1) a recovery above the cliff metals fell from or (2) a fall to a double bottom or lower low. This week gold merely recovered a bit more than 50% of its fall from 12 April, silver about 45%. So far, that's only a normal correction, and leans toward yet another drop.

To repair the damage done by the great fall, gold must close above $1,550 without any equivocation. The SILVER PRICE must close above 2950c.

Will silver and GOLD PRICES plunge to lower lows? Three witnesses argue against that, the Dow/Gold, the Dow/Silver, and the GOLD/SILVER RATIO. Stocks have turned down against metals, and the gold/silver ratio has turned lower. All three of those are aligned for strength in silver and gold. By the way, the gold/silver ratio is still high enough to make swaps from gold into silver very attractive.

I no more know how long it will take silver and gold prices to recover than I know how to shear a hog. May is often not a happy month for metals, yearly lows often fall in June or early July, and August cyclically they turn and begin a rally into the fall. Generally. Usually. Except when they don't.

I am certain of this: the gold and silver price primary uptrend (bull market) has not ended, any more than the primary downtrend (bear market) in stocks has ended. These are the PRIMARY trends, and despite up or down phases, over the years these trends will express themselves plainly.

It was a better week for the silver and gold prices, but turmoil hath not yet passed. Stocks rose, but notice that the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver sank, meaning that silver and gold rose faster than stocks, a portentous outcome. And the US Nice Government Men are doing a great job of keeping the dollar down, while carrying like Atlas the whole plumb-broke world on their shoulders.

Today all the stock indices except the Potemkin Dow declined. Dow rose an infinitesimal 11.75 (0.08%) to 14,712.55, but "it finished the week higher," reflecting credit on the Nice Government Men. S&P declined slightly, down 2.92 (0.18%) to 1,582.24. 

Both indices are a hard to parse here, but both are correcting. Both ended this week above their 20 day moving averages, which leaves their momentum up temporarily, although technically both are in a down trend (lower low and lower high in sequence). You all may think I'm crazy, but as sure as ax heads don't float, stocks will yet this year come down with a mighty crash. I am not tempted to share that experience. 

Dow in Gold rose a little today, up 0.95% to 10.12 oz (G$209.20 gold dollars) but remains in a down trend. 20 DMA stands at 9.90. Dow in Silver rose 2.34% to 619.27 oz, but also still trendeth down. Breach of 600.00 oz. will accelerate the fall. 

Miss not, neither pass by, what this signifieth: the trend of stocks gaining value against silver and gold has been broken in favor of silver and gold. I remind y'all that when stocks peaked against gold in August 1999, that was our sign and warning that stocks were peaking. The Dow did not top until January 2000 at 11,722, but the Dow in Gold never reached higher than that August 1999 high. Dow/Gold and Dow/Silver are VERY reliable forward indicators for stocks and metals. 

Currencies are moving sideways. Yen closed up today 1.33% at 102.05 cents/Y100, and pierced but closed not above its 20 DMA (102.33). Clearly the loonies who manage the yen are managing it lower. And speaking of loonies, the euro moved a little today, up 0.13% to $1.3028 from yesterday's $1.3010, and closed above its 20 DMA ($1.3015). Doesn't look ready to run away anywhere. Next big move will most likely be gravity-ward. 

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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